War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv

jessicagenauer

Analysis of the war in Ukraine, as well as deep-dives into warfighting strategy and leadership read less

111. ANALYSIS: Una Bergmane on Baltic states’ independence; Soviet echoes in invasion of Ukraine; possiblity of Russian military clash with Baltic states & performative insanity in Russian rhetoric
18-11-2022
111. ANALYSIS: Una Bergmane on Baltic states’ independence; Soviet echoes in invasion of Ukraine; possiblity of Russian military clash with Baltic states & performative insanity in Russian rhetoric
Una Bergmane, Research Fellow at the Aleksanteri Institute at the University of Helsinki, discusses Baltic states' independence from the Soviet Union; democratization versus empire; viewing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine through the echoes of Soviet history; the possiblity of a military clash between Russia and the Baltic countries; and the implications of performative insanity in Russian domestic rhetoric.  “The question of Gorbachev’s relations with the Baltic republics [during the Perestroika years] is not just a story about the relations between the centre and periphery it is also a story about a deep tension at the heart of the Perestroika project, the tension between democratisation and the preservation of empire.”  During the Soviet period "Russian-speakers who arrived in Estonia and Latvia from other Soviet republics were not encouraged by the Soviet state to learn the local languages or to integrate themselves in Latvian or Estonian societies. They were encouraged to claim the privileges afforded to Russian speakers in the Soviet Union... This created the sense in the Baltic countries that... this imperial bond with Moscow has to be cut... as an existential imperative... There was this urge to reaffirm other identities other than the Soviet identity." When it comes to Ukraine "everybody in the Baltic countries understands that it could have been us... if something had happened a little bit differently in the 1990s... we would face the same choice as the Ukrainians do now... whether to live in the Russian zone of influence... which is a life in the zone of influence of Putin's regime... or face a war of agression."  Una Bergmane: More about The Politics of Uncertainty: The US, the Baltic States and the Collapse of the Soviet Union Una Bergmane on Fading Russian Influence in the Baltic States Una Bergmane on International Reactions to the Soviet Use of Force in the Baltic Republics in 1991 Una Bergmane on twitter: @unabergmane Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer More about the host: Jessica Genauer
110. ANALYSIS: Collin Koh on maritime security concerns in SEA - China / India maritime power; lessons learnt from maritime conflict in Ukraine war; and likelihood of a clash between China & Taiwan
13-11-2022
110. ANALYSIS: Collin Koh on maritime security concerns in SEA - China / India maritime power; lessons learnt from maritime conflict in Ukraine war; and likelihood of a clash between China & Taiwan
Collin Koh, Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technology University, on maritime security concerns in South East Asia; tensions in the South China Sea; China's build-up of maritime forces; Singapore's security concerns; India's maritime power - as well as lessons learnt from the use of maritime force in the war in Ukraine, and whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine increases or decreases the likelihood that China might attempt to integrate Taiwan by force.  **If you're primarily interested in lessons learnt from maritime conflcit in the war in Ukraine & whether Russia's invasion increases likelihood of military clash between China and Taiwan - skip to minute 14:17** "China remains a black box when it comes to its strategic intentions [as a maritime power] on the one hand it talks about diplomacy and economic cooperation but on the other hand we are still seeing China resort to maritime coercion” "There are some key lessons that can be drawn from the Ukraine war for the South Asian maritime region - first of all - a weaker power can actually hold up against a stronger power… A weaker power can leverage asymmetric strengths to counter a stronger power" "China is already drawing lessons from this war… as part of China’s military modernisation Russia has clearly been one of the models that they tried to emulate... and it came very likely as a huge shock to China that… in terms of its doctrine, its training and its equipment… the Russian military has grossly underperformed beyond expectations… China has already been conducting reviews of what they saw as lessons from Russia… these changes will take time" Collin Koh on Maritime Security in Southeast Asia  Collin Koh on AUKUS and Risks of Submarine Proliferation  Collin Koh on twitter: @CollinSLKoh Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer More about the host: Jessica Genauer