Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses recent escalations in the Ukraine war, the costs to the United States and European partners of supporting Kyiv, the effect of the conflict on Russia’s economy, the problems with Biden’s strategy, why it’s unlikely Ukraine can achieve total victory, the timing of ceasefire diplomacy and peace talks, how early negotiations proved the significance of Ukraine’s neutrality as a core issue of the war, the wayward mission of NATO and the future of the alliance, and why it’s not in US interests to bring Ukraine into NATO, among other issues.Show NotesEmma Ashford, “Testing Assumptions About the War in Ukraine,” Stimson Center Policy Memo, May 23, 2024Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson, Stephen Wertheim, “What Does America Want in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rachel Metz, assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, explains why security assistance, one of the most ubiquitous programs in U.S. foreign policy, so often fails. She argues that bureaucratic interests, organizational processes, and perverse dynamics of civil-military relations discourage conditioning U.S. support for partner militaries. She also discusses the role of norms in the U.S. Army, the need for greater civilian oversight and management, why the policymakers need to be more selective about security assistance, and how U.S. political leaders have expanded the military’s roles and responsibilities to the detriment of an effective U.S. strategy. Show NotesRachel Tecott Metz; “The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails,” International Security 2022/2023; 47 (3): 95–135. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jonathan Kirshner, professor of political science and international studies at Boston College, discusses his most recent book, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics. Kirshner provides fundamental critiques of structural realism and offensive realism and argues for classical realism’s greater explanatory power and firmer theoretical underpinnings. He also covers rationalist explanations for war, the role of change and uncertainty in world politics, the rise of China, and why effective grand strategy requires a healthy politics, among other topics. Show NotesJonathan Kirshner, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics, Princeton University Press, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Hannah, senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs, the nonprofit housed at the Eurasia Group, and host of the None of the Above podcast, argues that President Biden has not used the leverage US support provides over Israel in its war in Gaza and Ukraine in its war with Russia, prolonging the conflicts instead of imposing real conditions and pressing for negotiated resolutions. He discusses the recently passed aid bill, Israel’s planned attack on Rafah and Biden’s threat to withhold aid, and the politics within each party over Israel and Ukraine, as well as the American addiction to war and tendency to construe international conflicts in simplified Manichean terms, among other issues.Show NotesMark Hannah, “Biden needs to get real with Ukraine and Israel,” CNN, April 26, 2024Mark Hannah, “Straight Talk on the Country’s War Addiction,” New York Times, February 18, 2023Mark Hannah, “Why Is the Wartime Press Corps So Hawkish,” Foreign Policy, March 30, 2022 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David Sterman, senior policy analyst at New America’s Future Security Program, tracks U.S. counter-terrorism airstrikes, particularly with drones. He discusses the history of drone strikes in post-9/11 U.S. counter-terrorism policy from Bush to Biden, the issue of civilian casualties, Biden’s quiet use of drone strikes in Yemen and Somalia, the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the problems of threat inflation and secrecy in covert strikes, defining endless war, and reform proposals for how to rein in America’s unachievable objectives and make U.S. counter-terrorism operations more transparent. Show NotesDavid Sterman, “How Many People Does the US Assess it Killed in Somalia in 2023?,” NewAmerica.org, April 2, 2024David Sterman, “The United States Should Provide a Detailed Accounting of its Operations in Yemen,” NewAmerica.org, August 3, 2023David Sterman, “Endless War Challenges Analysis of Drone Strike Effectiveness,” Journal of National Security Law and Policy, May 6, 2023 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Bosworth, founder of Hxagon and columnist at World Politics Review, discusses the various "push factors" throughout Latin America and the Caribbean driving the recent upsurge in migration to the US-Mexico border. He covers US-Mexico relations as well as gang violence, poor governance problems, and other instability in Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and beyond. Bosworth also discusses the transnational network dynamics of criminal organizations throughout the region, including their involvement in human trafficking, and argues that only an internationally coordinated approach within the hemisphere can mitigate such problems. Finally, he explains why the US's drug war approach to the region is misguided and provides recommendations for how DC can better approach this hemisphere's problems.Show NotesJames Bosworth at World Politics Review Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jon Hoffman, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and adjunct professor at George Mason University, argues for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.'s "special relationship" with Israel. He discusses the dire scale of Israel's siege of Gaza and why it qualifies as collective punishment, Israel's lack of clear military objectives in Gaza and plans to attack Rafah, and the widespread regional ramifications of the conflict. He also talks about the negative consequences of unwavering US support for Israel, the military-heavy US approach to the Middle East, the Abraham Accords and Biden's prospective normalization deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and explains what having a "normalized" U.S.-Israel relationship would look like.Show NotesJon Hoffman bioJon Hoffman, "Israel is a Strategic Liability for the United States," ForeignPolicy.com, March 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dale Copeland, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia and author of the new book A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, talks about his "dynamic realism" theory of great power war and peace, emphasizing the critical causal role of future trade expectations. Copeland discusses case studies from the American Revolutionary War to the Spanish-American War and the beginnings of the Cold War and then applies his theory to U.S.-China relations across a range of policy areas, with important insights into how to avert a catastrophic war.  Show NotesDale Copeland bioA World Safe for CommerceEconomic Interdependence and WarThe Origins of Major War Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the lack of strategic focus in the Biden administration's foreign policy and argues that genuine prioritization requires retrenchment. The U.S. should draw down from Europe and the Middle East, he argues, and step away from formal security commitments there in order to avoid getting entangled in conflicts where U.S. interests are not vital. He also discusses Biden's maladroit approach to East Asian security, particularly Taiwan, the failure of his "democracy vs autocracy" rhetoric, and the prospects for a negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine, among other topics.  Show NotesStephen Wertheim bioStephen Wertheim, "Why America Can't Have it All," Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2024Stephen Wertheim, "Biden's Democracy-Defense Credo Does Not Serve U.S. Interests," The Atlantic, January 23, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Paul Poast, associate professor of political science at University of Chicago, discusses the concept of hegemony in international relations and puts forth several models to explain a state's willingness to take on the global responsibilities of a hegemon. He also explains hegemonic stability theory, analyzes the Biden administration's democracy vs autocracy rhetoric, and suggests the United States may be a hegemon in decline.  Show Notes Paul Poast bioPaul Poast, "Don't Blame Lack of Will for the United States' Waning Hegemony," World Politics Review, January 26, 2024Paul Poast, "Biden's 'Defending Democracy' Agenda is All Talk," World Politics Review, February 2, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Elite politics shape and constrain democratic leaders in decisions about the use of force and tend to induce a hawkish bias into war-time foreign policy. So says Columbia University professor Elizabeth N. Saunders in her forthcoming book The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. She explores how elite politics influenced presidential decisions in U.S. wars including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond. She also discusses the problems of the public's rational ignorance of foreign policy and the tensions between an elite-centric foreign policy and democratic values, among other topics. Elizabeth N. Saunders bioElizabeth N. Saunders, The Insider’s Game: How Elites Make War and Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2024). Forthcoming. Elizabeth N. Saunders, “Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy,” Annual Review of Political Science 25 (May 2022): pp. 219-240.Chaim Kauffman, “Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War,” International Security 29, no. 1 (Summer 2004): pp. 5-48. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses the increasing instability in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, Russia's war in Ukraine and the implications for the US role in the world, and rising US-China tensions over Taiwan. He also talks about the risks of emerging economic nationalism, middle powers, the US addiction to primacy and American exceptionalism, and the problems of trying to manage global politics from Washington.  Show NotesRobert Manning bioMatthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “The ‘New’ New Middle East and Its Consequences,” Stimson Center, October 11, 2023. Robert A. Manning and Matthew Burrows, “Red Cell: The Fallacy of Perpetual US Primacy,” Stimson Center, February 7, 2023.Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “Is the US Getting Multilateralism Wrong?” Stimson Center, April 11, 2023.Robert A. Manning, “Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?” Stimson Center, October 27, 2023.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft explains the problem of retired military brass working for the arms industry and how this revolving door tends to militarize U.S. foreign policy. He also discusses China's military buildup and why it shouldn't automatically translate to bigger U.S. defense budgets. Other topics include the military industrial complex, Eisenhower's Farewell Address, the Pentagon's inability to pass an audit, and threat inflation, among others.Show NotesWilliam Hartung and Dillon Fisher, "March of the Four-Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry, " Quincy Brief No. 47, October 4, 2023.William Hartung, "Reality Check: Chinese Military Spending in Context," Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute, December 5, 2023.William Hartung, "Good Times for the Military Industrial Complex," TomDispatch.com, November 12, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective. Show NotesJennifer Kavanagh bioJennifer Kavanagh and Frederic Wehrey, "Washington's Looming Middle Eastern Quagmire," Foreign Affairs, November 24, 2023.Jennifer Kavanagh and Bryan Frederick, "Why Force Fails," Foreign Affairs, March 30, 2023 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weaponizing global supply chains is self-defeating and alters supply chain networks in ways that accelerate, rather than slow China’s rise. University of Connecticut assistant professor Miles Evers discusses how business-state relationships affect international relations. He also describes how economic coercion drives away potential allies and business, which allows China to innovate and increase its share of global trade despite US sanctions. Show NotesMiles Evers bioLing S. Chen and Miles M. Evers, “’Wars without Gun Smoke’: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft,” International Security 48, no. 2 (Fall 2023): pp. 164-204.Miles M. Evers, “Discovering the Prize: Information, Lobbying, and the Origins of US–Saudi Security Relations,” European Journal of International Relations 29, no. 1 (March 2023): pp. 104-128.Miles M. Evers, “Just the Facts: Why Norms Remain Relevant in an Age of Practice,” International Theory 12, no. 2 (2020): pp. 220-230.Geoffrey Gertz and Miles M. Evers, “Geoeconomic Competition: Will State Capitalism Win?” The Washington Quarterly 43, no. 2 (2020): pp. 117-136.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility. Show NotesJoshua Byun bioD.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy Blog, September 6, 2023.Joshua Byun and Do Young Lee, “The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 44, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 67-87.D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy (September 5, 2023). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the work of renowned realist thinker Reinhold Niebuhr. He explores Niebuhr’s views on war, politics, and American Exceptionalism, and argues that Niebuhr's restraint-oriented ideas are just what is needed in contemporary debates about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the rivalry with China.  Show NotesChristopher Chivvis bioChristopher S. Chivvis, “The Humility of Restraint: Niebuhr’s Insights for a More Grounded Twenty-First-Century American Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace working paper, November 22, 2021.Christopher S. Chivvis, “Some Politicians Seem Comfortable with the Idea of a New Cold War. They Shouldn’t.” The Guardian, February 22, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Justin Logan, Cato’s director of defense and foreign policy studies, and Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at Cato, discuss the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas and the imperative of avoiding further U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. They talk about the deep problems with the Abraham Accords, Biden's misguided bid for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, how client states employ "reverse leverage" on their U.S. patron, whether Israel can avoid America's post-9/11 mistakes, and the prospects for a genuine change in U.S. policy towards this region, among other issues.  Show NotesJustin Logan bioJon Hoffman bioJon Hoffman and Justin Logan, “Time to Change Course in the Middle East,” National Interest, October 21, 2023.Justin Logan, “The Hamas-Israel War,” Cato at Liberty, October 14, 2023.Jon Hoffman, “Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 961, September 20, 2023.Jon Hoffman, “A Shaky Foundation,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 939, December 20, 2022.Justin Logan, “The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East,” Defense Priorities, September 30, 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S.'s frequent use of force abroad erodes the international order's most fundamental principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway discusses the erosion of domestic constraints on presidential war powers and the increasing official resort to untenable self-defense doctrines to justify its military actions under international law. She also explains why chipping away at the prohibition on the use of force undermines international order, among other topics.Show NotesOona Hathaway bioOona A. Hathaway, “How the Expansion of ‘Self-Defense’ Has Undermined Constraints on the Use of Force,” Just Security, September 18, 2023.Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).Oona A. Hathaway et al., “Yemen: Is the U.S. Breaking the Law?” Harvard National Security Journal 10 (2019).Oona Hathaway, “National Security Lawyering in the Post-War Era: Can Law Constrain Power?” UCLA Law Review 68, rev. 2 (2021). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations at Brown University, argues that dominant theories of nuclear brinkmanship lack a nuanced understanding of the crucial factor of human psychology. She discusses the psychology of political leaders, the rational actor model, Thomas Schelling's notion of "threats that leave something to chance," the psychology of revenge, the coercive utility of nuclear weapons, and why nuclear deterrence may not be as stable as many people think, among other topics. Show NotesRose McDermott bioReid B.C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, “The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” International Security 47, no. 3 (2023): pp. 9-51.James W. Davis and Rose McDermott, “The Past, Present, and Future of Behavioral IR,” International Organization 75, no. 1 (2022): pp. 147-177.Rose McDermott, Anthony C. Lopez, and Peter K. Hatemi, “’Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and Deterrence,” Texas National Security Review 1, no. 1 (November 2017): pp. 68-88. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.