Forward Guidance

Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. read less
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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
2d ago
Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how China’s decision to peg its currency the Chinese Yuan in 1994 at an artificially low rate had enormous consequences on world’s monetary system, and why China may be soon be forced to make a monetary policy decision regarding its currency which may have similarly large consequences for the globe. Filmed on March 13, 2024. Russell is the author of two books, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms” and “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt.” __ Russell Napier’s newsletter, The Solid Ground: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ Russell’s first book, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms”: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/0857195220/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Russell Napier’s second book, “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt”: https://www.amazon.com/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) How To Spot A Change In Monetary Policy (03:50) Birth Of The Age Of Debt (08:43) Chinese Surpluses Are Getting Smaller (14:10) China's Choice Between Deflation Or Devaluation (18:23) China's Growth Requires Massive Expansion In Narrow Money (27:10) VanEck Ad (27:53) Is China The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Ever? (30:35) PBOC Likely To Move To Flexible Exchange Rate In Order To Achieve Their Goals In Controlling Price And Quantity of Money (33:53) Is Foreign Lending Contingent Upon U.S. Dollar Reserves? (36:29) The Origin of The Chinese Stock Market In 1992 (39:11) Valuations of China's Stock Market (41:33) Buy Cheap Currencies, Not Cheap Companies (54:11) Napier's Views On Japanese Currency And Stock Market (58:51) The Lessons Of Quantitative Easing (QE) (01:01:27) The Future of Japanese Monetary Policy (01:03:10) The Interest Rate Shock Has Not Broken Something. Why? Will This Continue? (01:06:16) Are Higher Interest Rates Deflationary Or Inflationary? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
18-03-2024
Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 1923 and its connection to central bank insolvency. Sauer argues that severe impairment of central bank assets, and not the printing of vast amounts of central bank liabilities (money), was the primary cause of extreme inflation witnessed 101 years ago in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Sauer inverts the causal line of exchange rate depreciation, money supply increase, and inflation, and he also shares his concern about the current state of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Filmed on March 5, 2024. __ Ingo Sauer’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@wissenhatkeineneigentumeri9889 Ingo Sauer’s 360 page paper, “The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance Sheets”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4620462 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Overview Of Dr. Sauer's Theory On The Ultimate Cause of Hyperinflation: Central Bank Insolvency (07:05) Dr. Sauer's Concerns About The Euro (11:22) Setting The Stage For German Hyperinflation in 1923 (14:33) The German Mark During World War I (21:40) The Assets Of The Reichsbank Increasingly Became Dominated By German Government Obligations (Not Commercial Bills / Collateral Advances / Gold) (30:03) Central Bank Insolvency (Not Money Supply Increase) Caused Hyperinflation in 1923 (34:53) VanEck Ad (36:48) Failed Attempts To Stabilize German Mark And Inflation, 1919-1922 (41:44) Reichsbank's Holdings Of German Treasury Bills Highly Correlated To (In)Solvency Factor (45:01) Explaining Sauer's "Solvency Factor" (47:29) The Mark's Short-Lived Rally In 1920 (51:10) Marker (57:09) The Mechanics Of Central Bank Insolvency (59:40) Reichsmark Insolvency Led To Depreciation Of The Mark, Which Led To Hyperinflation (01:02:34) Money Supply Did Not Cause Hyperinflation, Argues Sauer (01:15:09) The Explosion In Reichsbank's Money Supply Was Mostly Paper Cash, Not Bank Reserves (01:23:03) Reparations' Impact On German Solvency (01:27:22) The Rentenmark And The Halting Of German HyperInflation (01:30:47) Central Bank Profits and Yield Curve Dynamics (01:34:58) European Debt Crisis (2009-2015) (01:36:45) Fed As Dealer Of Last Resort, European Central Bank (ECB) As Market Maker Of Last Resort (01:38:06) ECB Is Less A Central Bank And More Of A "Headquarters" For Domestic Euro Central Banks (such as Bank of France, for example) (01:40:23) Origin Of Fed, And Clearinghouse Loan Certificates As National Currency Before The Fed (01:44:18) Why Has ECB Balance Sheet Expansion Post 2008 Coincided With Disinflation (Or Deflation), And Not Hyperinflation? (01:47:44) Sauer's Fears About The ECB And The Euro (02:00:46) The Mechanics Of Monetary Financing (02:18:32) Interest Rate Risk Is Not A Systemic Concern __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
14-03-2024
Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at “negative leverage” - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the property’s cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024. __ Follow Nick Halaris on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris’ Newsletter Profit + https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/subscribe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Overview of Commercial Real Estate (04:24) Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected (06:49) Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand (08:43) Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates (11:09) Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic (18:58) Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)? (22:22) Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate (26:25) VanEck Ad (27:11) CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System (29:31) Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive (31:28) Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home) (34:12) Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip) (38:18) New York Community Bank (NYCB) (59:03) Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
12-03-2024
Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called “breadth weakness” occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase “Magnificent 7” is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a “typical” Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024. __ Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not (04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well (09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000) (12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020 (16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration (20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens (22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples" (22:29) VanEck Ad (24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle (30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles (36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI) (43:17) Quality As A Factor (45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date" (49:37) Size and Value As Factors __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
08-03-2024
The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed
07-03-2024
The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capitalisn't https://www.capitalisnt.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Is It Time To Investigate The Fed? (01:45) There Needs To Be A Sacrificial Lamb (07:21) Accountability In The Private Sector (11:20) Activist Investors Can Help If Company's Issues Are Financial In Nature (15:49) Potential Solutions: Whistleblowers And Abolition Of NDAs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:36) Moving Beyond Sarbanes-Oxley (26:26) ESG Space Has Attracted A Lot Of "Charlatans" Precisely Because The Issue Is So Important (33:37) The Future of Financial Technology (FinTech) (36:42) A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Would Be "Much More Efficient" (43:22) With CBDC, All Short-Term Demand Deposits Would Be With Fed, and Commercial Banks Would Fund Themselves With Term Deposits (i.e. CDs) (46:47) On Economics As A Field (48:52) Has U.S. Entered A New Era Of Secularly Higher Growth? (50:07) Are Interest Rates Too Restrictive? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929
04-03-2024
Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929
Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could either be a corrective move in the middle of a bull market or the beginning of a true bear market. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton More About Milton Berg: https://www.miltonberg.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Milton's Buy Signals Have Continued To Appear In The Stock Market (06:11) This Bull Market Is Unique In Its Strength, And It Its Weakness (10:53) Indicators That Suggest A Stock Market Top In February 2024 (15:20) Why Milton Is Leaning Bearish (24:05) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts And Earnings Cycle (Milton Disagrees That These Are Bullish Factors) (30:55) There's Lots Of Momentum In This Market - But It's Not Bullish Momentum (35:28) Banking Index Is Behaving Strangely (40:37) Evidence This Could Be A Blow-Off Top (49:33) VanEck Ad (50:16) This Is Not A Healthy Market (52:34) The Permabears Could Finally Be Right (53:13) Speculation In Blue Chip Companies Is Extreme (Although Speculation In Unprofitable Companies Is Not) (01:00:09) Mind The GAP! (01:05:29) Portrait Of A Sick Market (01:07:22) New Highs In Europe And Japan - Milton Isn't Impressed! (01:10:48) China (01:12:37) Cycle Dates (01:16:54) Climax Top In SuperMicro (SMCI) - Milton Was Long But Has Flipped Short (01:21:31) If There's A New Bear Market In 2024, It Will Probably Cause A Recession (Unlike In 2022) (01:26:35) Milton's Long-Only Portfolio (01:28:26) Milton's Short List Of Overextended Stocks (Including Nvidia) (01:33:12) Would A Forthcoming Sell-off Be A Corrective Move During a Bull Market Or The Beginning Of A New Bear Market? (01:35:29) Alibaba, Paypal, and Berkshire Hathaway (01:36:43) A Review Of The Buy And Sell Signals __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Remi Tetot on AI, Crypto, and Uranium
03-03-2024
Remi Tetot on AI, Crypto, and Uranium
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.  VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Stock Market Rally Has "Room To Go" But Tetot Is "Cautious" Around Nosebleed Valuations (06:11) Nvidia's Data Center Business Is Cyclical, Notes Tetot (07:53) AI Is A Bit Overhyped, Argues Tetot (18:47) The Business Cycle Is Still Digesting The Excess (21:29) VanEck Ad (22:14) The Fed's Balance Sheet (24:37) When Will The Fed Start To Cut Rates? (33:42) Crypto (38:57) Key Learnings From Last Crypto Cycle (47:35) Uranium (54:56) Remi's Long Idea On Homebuilders __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
29-02-2024
Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023 (03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession (05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points (10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late" (12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market (15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn" (16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed (20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We? (23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed (25:59) VanEck Ad (26:46) Labor Market (29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret (36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer (40:27) The Housing Market (41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again (49:35) Neutral Policy Rate (55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness
27-02-2024
Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness
Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Stocks Vs. Bonds (05:19) Upside Downside Capture On Bonds (08:24) Overweight Stocks Over Bonds (21:44) VanEck Ad (22:29) Stock Market Valuations (30:51) Return Attribution In Equity Portfolio (37:26) Breadth In Stock Market (45:00) Notion of "Equity Duration" Is Mostly Just A Narrative (49:11) Comparisons To Dot Com Bubble (53:40) Bond Market Outlook on Credit & Duration Risk (55:55) The Fed And The Wealth Effect As The "Third Leg Of The Monetary Policy Stool" (57:01) Are Financial Conditions Tight Or Loose? (01:01:52) Investing With An Income Focus __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China
26-02-2024
Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank
23-02-2024
Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit (02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank (15:03) VanEck Ad (15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB") (21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem (23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market (25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt (29:59) How This Might Play Out (32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks (35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities (40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe (43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility
22-02-2024
Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility
Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Patrick Saner on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patrick_saner Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient (03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate (08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT) (13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed (17:44) VanEck Ad (18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion (20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re (23:24) Inflation Volatility (33:47) Currencies (35:46) European Economy (38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession (40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation (43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case (45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts
21-02-2024
Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Paul Sankey research: https://sankeyresearch.com/ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Oil Market At "Equilibrium" Right Now (08:51) “If It Wasn't For Saudi Production Cuts, Oil Would Be Below 60 Dollars, I'm Sure Of It” (13:03) U.S. Oil Production Has Exploded (18:25) VanEck ad (19:07) The Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Cycle Has Begun In Oil (Diamondback-Endeavor Deal) (25:40) Importance Of Inventory Quality (And Quantity) (29:00) Management Issues (32:38) Buybacks and Dividends (35:50) Oil Companies With Strongest (And Weakest) Inventories (38:07) Merger Arb In Deals That Haven't Closed (44:43) How AI Will Impact Power Demand (50:55) About Sankey Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery
19-02-2024
Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The Small Cap Value Universe (06:58) Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now? (11:27) How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks (14:45) Finding Asymmetric Opportunities (16:18) VanEck Ad (17:51) Ferroglobe PLC (20:50) ACV Auctions (24:52) I Despise Price / Sales Ratio (27:38) What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work? (31:17) Look At Managements' Incentives (40:54) Banking Stocks (43:06) Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s (45:17) Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World? (51:13) Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason (53:06) How to Avoid "Value Traps" (58:42) How To Generate Short Ideas (01:07:00) The Role of Macro (01:08:37) U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles" (01:10:51) Calumet Specialty Products (01:13:33) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba
16-02-2024
The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) What Is Private Credit? (07:51) Private Credit Is Doing The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Finance (16:04) How Will Private Credit Perform If Defaults Pick-Up? (Very Little Data In Previous Cycles Because The Asset Class Has Grown So Much) (19:24) Private Credit Is Very Illiquid (20:54) Debt Covenants In Private Credit Are, Admittedly, Usually Very Strong (26:31) VanEck Ad (27:14) Interplay Between Private Credit and Rest of Fixed Income Universe (32:35) Private Equity Is Using Private Credit To Pay Itself Via Dividend Recaps (35:13) Private Credit Is Refinancing Some Of The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Loan Market, Which Perhaps May Be Bullish For Leveraged Loan (& High-Yield Bond) Market (38:00) Default Outlook In High-Yield Bond And Leveraged Loan Market (43:09) Moderately Bullish View On Duration (I.e. Rates) (58:43) Maturity Wall High-Yield Bond Is Very, Very Termed Out (01:02:56) Opportunities In Securitized Products Market Appear Interesting (01:04:57) Single Borrower Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Offers Interesting Opportunities To Fundamental Credit Investors (01:07:48) Most Common Investing Mistake In Credit: Herd Mentality __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)
13-02-2024
Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk (04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation (16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates? (21:25) VanEck Ad (22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? (29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose? (44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year" (47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood (01:01:20) China (01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders (01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank
13-02-2024
Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Joseph’s latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
China’s Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The World’s Biggest Bubble Ever
09-02-2024
China’s Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The World’s Biggest Bubble Ever
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps; (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (05:17) The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It's Still In Early Stages) (11:21) How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance > Forward Guidance (27:02) VanEck Ad (37:52) Views On The Chinese Stock Market (38:12) The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy (47:11) U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump (52:03) Much Of China's Bank Equity Is "Going To Be Wiped Out" (57:32) Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown? (01:04:25) McCarthy's Long-Term Thesis On China: "They Will Go The Japan Path" (01:11:37) China's FX Reserves (01:14:06) Why Can't China Reinflate The Property Bubble? (01:17:31) Closing Thoughts On China (01:19:46) Macro Implications Of China's Slowdown On Global Economy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.